In the months leading up to the 2026 Victorian State government elections, Koala Alliance is committed to providing you the realities and facts about what is happening to koalas in the State. It is time for the facts and there are plenty of Myths to Bust!
- The Myth of Abundance
- The Myth of Protection
- The Myth of Accountability
- The Myth of Cost
To name just a few.
In this first blog, we bust the Victorian State government Myth that, “Koalas are healthy and thriving in Victoria”.
The first thing to say is the Victorian State government hasn’t backed this statement up with ‘boots on the ground’ evidence. Instead, it is estimated from modeling; or put another way, it has been guesstimated.
The Victorian government statement is misleading because it presents a level of certainty about the Victorian koala populations that simply does not exist in the data. Given the fragility of many local populations and the limitations of existing research, this kind of messaging is not harmless reassurance; it risks distorting public understanding and delaying meaningful conservation action.
Where the population guesstimates come from?
The Victorian Government’s koala population estimates are primarily derived from a 2020 modelling study, published by the Arthur Rylah Institute (ARI), a government research body within the Department of Environment, Energy and Climate Action (DEECA).
That study did not involve new, systematic statewide field surveys of koala abundance. Instead, it relied on:
- Historical records from the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas (VBA)
- Existing ecological and academic literature
- Opportunistic sightings and legacy datasets from researchers and consultants
These datasets were never designed to measure population size. They were not collected under a consistent statewide monitoring framework. They are fragmented, uneven, and heavily biased toward areas already surveyed or reported in the past.
Yet these same datasets were later used as the foundation for statewide population modelling in Victoria.
In plain terms: the model estimates koala numbers based on where koalas have been seen historically.
No boots on the ground, direct census data was collected to come up with the 460,000 figure for the number of koalas in the State. Statistical modelling was used rather than direct census data. This is no precision here, just inference layered on top of incomplete historical data. The result is a figure that may look authoritative, but is fundamentally uncertain and misleading.
It’s about as accurate as a blindfolded dart throw.
To be blunt, this approach is closer to modelling educated guesses than measuring real populations. It assumes stability in habitat use and detection probability that simply does not exist across a fragmented, heavily modified landscape.
The public is being presented with a level of data confidence that is not supported by field reality.
What carers and field observers are seeing
Wildlife carers, rescuers, and local conservation groups have consistently reported a very different picture on the ground.
In many regions of Victoria, including historically occupied woodland areas, there has been:
- Little to no recent systematic monitoring
- Clear evidence of decline in local koala sightings
- Increasing fragmentation of populations
- Ongoing rescue cases linked to starvation, stress related illness, road trauma, and displacement
Just one of the many examples the Koala Alliance could cite is the situation in Ballarat and surrounding areas, where koala research has been sparse for decades. While historic studies had already identified concerning declines, there has been no sustained follow-up monitoring in the region at any useful scale.
By 2020, the situation reported by local carers was already critical.
These warnings were not acted upon in any meaningful way. Now, in several regions, local extinction is no longer a theoretical risk; it is a likely outcome if current trends continue.
Against this backdrop, claims that koalas are “abundant and thriving” in Victoria are inaccurate and disingenuous.
The Victorian Koala Management Strategy
The ARI modelling directly informed the Victorian Koala Management Strategy 2022–2032, which sets the direction for koala conservation over the next decade.
This followed an 18-year gap since the previous strategy, a gap that speaks volumes about the priority placed on koala conservation in Victoria.
During public consultation, carers and conservation groups presented patterns highlighting the scale of statewide concerns. Yet many of these issues were either downplayed or omitted entirely in the final strategy, and continue to be clinically sidestepped by government.
The 2025 “Great Koala Survey”
With great fanfare, in early 2025, DEECA announced the Great Koala Survey, stating: “Our knowledge of Victorian koala populations is patchy.” A statement that certainly contradicts the confidence previously expressed in both the ARI report and the Victorian Koala Management Strategy!
So, which is it DEECA? Is your knowledge about koala populations patchy, or are you confident enough to state publicly that koalas are widespread – because you can’t have it both ways.
Such contradictory statements look like nothing more than a gambling with the life of an Australian icon.
Release the $850,000 Taxpayer Funded Koala report
We can’t finish this first myth busting blog without talking about ‘that report’, the $850,000 tax payer funded report that was supposed to be released in 2025. It seems like the Victorian government would like it to be quietly forgotten about.
The report, titled, The Status of Victoria’s Koala Population: Surveys to Estimate Abundance, Genetic Diversity and Koala Health, is supposedly a comprehensive summary of koala status in Victoria and covers 1. Health & Disease, 2. Genetic Diversity & Inbreeding, 3. Proof of Abundance (or not as the case may be), 4. Distribution, 5. Habitat Status, and 6. A roadmap for preventing the species’ demise.
But where is it – why hasn’t it been published?
When did you know a government to hide a report with good outcomes?
One of the authors, ecologist Dr Desley Whisson, recently spoke out publicly, frustrated by the delays, quoted as saying, “concerns regarding “problems” with how the agency is managing the species, “I really fear that without effective management, we could end up losing our koalas. It doesn’t take much for a big fire to wipe out big populations, and I’m concerned about the health of koalas where they occur at low densities”.
Similarly, International Fund for Animal Welfare (IFAW) head of programs, Josie Sharrad said, “People assume there are more of them here, so we’re not going to lose them. But koalas that are more abundant are facing starvation, lack of habitat, disease, and inbreeding. So it’s kind of like Victoria’s shameful secret,”
When koalas are listed as endangered in three other states and predominantly face the same threats throughout its historic range, if the Victorian Government says this state is different, they must not withhold critical information back. Instead, they must back up their claims – release the report.
How koalas are actually being “managed” across different scenarios, what outcomes are emerging from government authorised health checks, and how many animals are being euthanised as a result of these interventions.
These are not minor details. They go directly to the heart of animal welfare, population viability, and the real-world consequences of current management practices. Without transparent reporting on these outcomes, the public is being asked to accept assurances about koala wellbeing without access to the evidence needed to verify them.
The role of mainstream media in this cannot be ignored. Too often, government claims are repeated without scrutiny, and critical questions go unasked. This lack of investigation has helped reinforce a narrative that is not adequately supported by transparent evidence. Greater accountability is needed from both government and media institutions.
Without transparent, consistent, field-based statewide monitoring, claims that koalas are “healthy and thriving” in Victoria are not evidence-based. What is the reality? What is a myth? Right now, we don’t know what we don’t know. As a result, we are gambling with the survival of koalas in Victoria.
In finishing, again it must be restated, governments do not generally withhold reports when findings are positive. Delays are far more common when results are contested and when a state election is just around the corner.
